The purge in Washington does not pause the war. Strikes continue, Hormuz remains closed, and Brent crude is still dancing around $109 a barrel. For India, the command chaos in the Pentagon is another layer of uncertainty piled on five weeks of conflict that was already straining every buffer Delhi has.
A Middle East expert claims that President Trump's approach to Iran is endangering US interests in the Gulf region, with support for the Iranian regime growing amid US-Israel tensions.
The United States has redirected 48 vessels in the Persian Gulf, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, over the past 20 days amid ongoing enforcement actions related to restrictions on Iranian maritime assets by the US Navy.
'We have lost 70-80 per cent of our business from foreign guests.'
'Was the five-day pause ever meant to hold, or was it simply another instrument of signaling, of positioning, of buying time in a war where even the pauses are tactical?' asks Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
For weeks, the war skirted the edge of catastrophe without tipping over. Missiles flew, there was much destruction, commanders were assassinated, cities across the Gulf and even in Israel struggled to absorb the shock. But one line held: Energy infrastructure, the arteries of the global economy, remained largely untouched. That is no longer true. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Following through announcements with enforcement of measures is key, as a run through recent Indian economic history shows, points out A K Bhattacharya.
'Refiners may soon be forced to adjust operations, curtailing runs as product exports stall and directing output solely to domestic markets.'
'Neither do the Israelis. The two attacking parties have very little economic interest in Hormuz.'
The LPG squeeze on India's restaurant sector is the quotidian face of a deeper crisis.
Pakistan is set to host the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkiye to discuss a range of issues, including de-escalating tensions in West Asia.
Both sides have now revealed a preference for escalation over strategic defeat, and each new provocation narrows the space for the next pause. The Touska seizure, Iran's refusal to negotiate under blockade, Israel's strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure -- all of these add up to an increasingly untenable situation. This makes the wild card -- Trump and his motormouth -- more consequential than ever, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
'Every day the meter is ticking. Like a time bomb.' Shipping giants are billing Indian exporters up to $3,000 per container in war surcharges -- on cargo that sailed before the war began -- as the Strait of Hormuz shuts down.
'Iran cannot trust the USA because it considers the USA to be Israel-controlled. And no, the IRGC is not going to accept anything else but major US concessions.'
Citizens and residents across the Gulf region are preparing for Eid amidst regional conflict, impacting festivities and daily life.
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Nepal is actively involved in rescuing its citizens from Gulf countries due to escalating tensions in West Asia, with thousands registering to return home. The government is committed to ensuring the safety of Nepalese citizens in the region and has formed an Emergency Response Team to manage the crisis.
Karex, the Malaysian company that makes roughly one in five of the world's condoms -- about five billion a year, supplying Durex and Trojan among others -- announced this week that it is raising prices by up to 30 percent. The reason is the Strait of Hormuz.
India is one of the few nations, and perhaps the only nation, that has good relations with America, Israel and Iran. Knowing that a war in the Gulf would damage our economy, hurt supply of fertilisers and fuel, and cause general chaos, we should have tried to ensure this war did not begin, asserts Aakar Patel.
'In such a scenario, Iran could proclaim itself victor, rebuild, re-enforce its diminished regional proxies to further destabilise neighbouring nations and take control of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.'
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
Iran is fighting a different war: Older, slower, and in some ways more dangerous. Iran doesn't need to shoot down an F/A-18. It only needs to make the Strait of Hormuz feel dangerous long enough for insurance markets, shipping companies, and oil futures traders to do the rest. Prem Panicker continues his must-read daily blog on the war in the Middle East.
'Strikes into the Gulf countries are proof that the security guarantees offered by the US are ineffective and that the Gulf countries cannot rely on American security assurances for their safety.'
To be sure, Trump is furious, as the trajectory of the war is in a state of Zugzwang, as chess players call it. Trump and Netanyahu stare at two choices -- retreat in humiliation and concede Tehran's demands -- recognition of its rights, reparations, and binding security guarantees -- or perish in a quagmire, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan held an online meeting with Loka Kerala Sabha members in the Gulf region to discuss support for the expatriate community amidst the escalating conflict in West Asia.
According to sources, the Indian Navy warships are on standby to provide assistance or help required by merchant vessels.
Nobody takes Pakistan seriously and therefore Pakistan's sudden mediating with almost immediate results of a ceasefire seems more contrived than real, points out Vice Admiral Biswajit Dasgupta (retd).
US President Donald Trump is considering ending the military operation against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Economist Jeffrey Sachs saw Gulf nations' decision to partner with the US through the Abraham Accords as an "invitation for disaster" as it made them more dependent on American protection.
Global energy markets saw a significant correction as oil prices nosedived following Iran's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz has been fully reopened, dismantling the 'war-risk' premium that had gripped the market.
Union Minister Pralhad Joshi assures that the Indian government is prepared to bring back Indians stranded in the Gulf region due to the Iran-Israel conflict and disruptions in Dubai, emphasizing citizen safety as the top priority.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that discussions aimed at halting the conflict with Iran have shown "some slight progress," while simultaneously echoing Washington's dissatisfaction with its NATO allies.
'What we have yet to see on either the US or the Iranian side is willingness to compromise on their ultimate demands and the flexibility to reach an agreement to end the war.
Israel wishes to continue its bombing campaign until Iran's military and industrial infrastructure are degraded to a point where it ceases to pose a threat to Israel. Iran, for its part, has learnt from its experience in the 12-day war of last June. Any ceasefire, it believes, will only be a prelude to another attack on itself. It is determined to convey that any attack on Iran will impose heavy costs on Israel, the US, America's allies in the Gulf -- and on the world at large, points out T T Ram Mohan.
China has called on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and expressed appreciation for Tehran's commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, a key demand of the US to end the conflict.
A media report suggests the US and Israel considered installing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Iran's president as part of regime change plans.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra is now confronting the classic growth-inflation tradeoff, a situation exacerbated by the West Asia war, which threatens to end the 'goldilocks period' of low inflation and robust growth.
The UN Security Council, with India's support, has adopted a resolution condemning Iran's attacks on Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Jordan, demanding an immediate cessation of hostilities and denouncing threats to the Strait of Hormuz.
An oil tanker carrying Saudi crude safely reached Mumbai after crossing the war-hit Strait of Hormuz with its tracking system briefly switched off.
The modern war is about quality over quantity, points out Mihir S Sharma.
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